Observe New Mexico Elections

SANTA FE — After months of attack ads, debates and candidate promises, Election Day has finally arrived in New Mexico.

Already, about 48.2% of the state’s registered voters have cast a ballot this year, as 663,874 votes were cast via early or absentee voting before early voting ended on Saturday.

That figure is lower than four years ago — roughly 785,000 votes were cast early in 2020 — but a strong Election Day turnout could propel the state past 2020 turnout levels.

Valencia County Chief Deputy Clerk Brenda Green said Monday she’s expecting robust Election Day turnout on Tuesday in a county in which 51% of registered voters have already cast ballots.

“I’m expecting there to be a record number of voters at the polls tomorrow,” Green told the Journal on Monday. “A lot of people are very passionate about getting out and voting in this election.”

She said early voting went smoothly for the most part, though some voters were asked to cover or remove clothing or apparel featuring candidates’ names when entering polling places. Such displays are considered electioneering and are not allowed in voting sites.

Observe New Mexico Elections, a nonprofit group that trained observers to visit more than 80 polling sites in 24 counties, reported Monday largely positive findings with only a few minor technical issues.

“Our observers have seen firsthand the diligent efforts of election staff across the state, and we are encouraged by the level of professionalism that has defined this election cycle,” said Barbara Vigil, a former state Supreme Court justice and advisory board member of the group.

In all, 928,230 votes, a total representing 68.7% of all registered voters, were cast in the 2020 general election.

Longtime political observer Brian Sanderoff said this year’s Election Day voting could be more robust than four years ago, when only about 15% of all votes cast were cast on Election Day.

“Four years ago was truly unique, as a much higher percentage of voters voted before Election Day due to COVID,” Sanderoff said.

Early vote turnout hotspots

Bernalillo County posted one of the highest early vote turnout rates in New Mexico this year, as more than 60% of registered Democrats and Republicans alike in the state’s most populous county voted before Election Day.

Other counties with high turnout rates so far include Santa Fe, Valencia, Sandoval and Los Alamos, where 68% of registered Democrats have already voted.

However, Republicans voted at a slightly higher rate than Democrats statewide, as about 55.9% of registered Republicans cast their votes before Election Day compared to roughly 52.1% of Democrats.

That bucks a trend from some other recent general elections, which saw Democrats voting at a higher clip during early voting.

“I think it does show that some Republicans are motivated and enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election,” said Sanderoff, who is the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc.

But he pointed out Democrats still cast about 64,000 more votes than Republicans statewide, since Democrats entered this year’s general election with a significant voter registration advantage.

Of the state’s more than 1.3 million registered voters, about 42.9% are Democrats and 31.6% are Republicans, according to Secretary of State’s Office data.

The remaining voters either declined to state a party affiliation, are registered Libertarians or are affiliated with a minor political party.

Candidates rally voters in final push

The run-up to Election Day in New Mexico has featured a final barrage of attack ads in some hotly contested races, including the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

There have also been a steady stream of television ads in the 2nd Congressional District contest between Republican Yvette Herrell and Democrat Gabe Vasquez.

The race is a rematch of a 2022 showdown that Vasquez narrowly won in a southern New Mexico-based district the Democratic-controlled Legislature redrew during the once-per-decade task of redistricting in 2021.

Herrell spoke at former President Donald Trump’s campaign rally in Albuquerque last week that drew an estimated 7,000 people, along with thousands more who were lined up outside.

Fellow Republican Nella Domenici, who is challenging incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich in this year’s race for a U.S. Senate seat, also spoke at Trump’s rally, saying it’s time for a “new day” in New Mexico.

Domenici held a get out the vote rally at Tomasita’s Restaurant in Albuquerque on Monday evening, while Heinrich spent the morning chatting with supporters and eating breakfast with New Mexico House Speaker Javier Martínez at Barela’s Coffee House.

In addition to the U.S. Senate race and New Mexico’s three congressional districts, all 112 state legislative seats are up for election this year.

Democrats are hoping to expand or hold their majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives, while Republicans are hoping to pick up seats in both chambers.

While nearly half of registered voters have already cast their votes, sophisticated campaigns are able to track which registered voters have not voted before Election Day, Sanderoff said.

They then can use phone calls and text messages to try to get their supporters to the polls.

The success of those efforts, Sanderoff said, could ultimately decide the outcome of some down-ballot races.

“A lot of that depends on how effective the candidates and campaigns are at getting out the vote,” he said.

Read the full article by Dan Boyd, of the Albuquerque Journal, here.